新西兰联储口头干预致使 纽元下滑
关键词：新西兰联储口头干预
纽元/美元周四(4月23日)亚市盘初大幅下挫，刷新一周低位0.7585。新西兰联储官员直言考虑降息，且不愿意看到纽元上涨。其措辞基本等同于口头干预汇市。
新西兰联储助理主席John McDermott表示，仍将保持刺激性货币政策，货币政策很难影响近期通胀前景，目前联储没有考虑加息。
McDermott更是指出，需求和通胀压力减弱的迹象，将促使联储考虑降息。未来调整利率的时机将取决于通胀压力情况。
John McDermott直言，奶制品等主要出口商品价格下降之际，不乐见汇率上涨。
消息公布后，纽元/美元自0.7640大幅下挫至一周低位0.7585。新西兰联储目前的倾向已经十分清晰，即便未来改变利率水平，也更倾向于降息，而非升息。
McDermott基本意味着新西兰联储之前加息周期的终结。随着美联储较早升息预期的持续，美元与纽元之间的利差预期将进一步收窄。这对于纽元来说，意味着失去了最为重要的利多因素。
之前，德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)就曾警告称，“投资者应该对新西兰联储是否将干预汇市保持高度警惕。纽元目前处于高估状态，而新西兰房价的通胀水平已经逼近了该联储下调官方现金利率(OCR)的警戒线。”
就后市而言，纽元/美元的下行趋势很可能进一步延续，特别是如果汇价持续交投于0.7600关口下方的话。在目前的外汇市场环境下，看多美元表现仍是市场主流情绪。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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