原油生产或将放缓
关键词：原油生产或将放缓
美国原油期货周二（4月14日）上涨1.38美元，涨幅2.66%，报53.29美元/桶。因美国页岩油产出将创下逾四年来首月下降，市场预期美原油产量或触顶。
油服贝克休斯(Baker Hughes)称，在开采中的石油钻探机减少至自2010年以来最低水平，这是产量即将封顶的标志。据贝克休斯公司称，美国上周石油钻探机数降至760台，连续18周来减少了52%。
美国能源信息署(EIA)周一公布，美国5月页岩油日产量料将较4月下降4.5万桶至498万桶，为四年多以来首次月度下降。
高盛（Goldman Saches）表示，在钻井平台数量出现创纪录下跌之际，美国原油产量和库存本月可能触顶。结束季节性维护的炼油厂到7月份有望把日需求增加约50万桶，帮助缓解85年来最严重的供应过剩局面。
市场预计伊朗不会立刻恢复石油出口。美国国会议员对于与伊朗的核协议存有疑虑，美国国务卿克里请求给予更多时间来完成这项协议，却几乎没有努力劝阻议员坚持国会审核最终协议。
伊朗石油部长3月16日称，经济制裁解除后的几个月内，伊朗可以将其石油生产每天增加1百万桶。伊朗石油部长周二呼吁OPEC减少至少5%的石油输出。
虽然中东地区政局不稳定也有助于推升油价，但分析师称全球产量及库存水平较高抑制了涨势。摩根大通在报告中称，“油市面临的地缘政治风险仍很高。不过从基本面角度看，中东的原油供应料维持高位，沙特和伊拉克的产量呈上升趋势。”
分析师还表示，中国的需求增长或将进一步放缓。辉立期货表示，“鉴于中国第一季GDP数据明天出炉，我们认为即便油价今天上涨，空间也不会大。”
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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