黄金公投恐难通过 国际金价或重回跌势
关键词：黄金公投
前距离瑞士黄金公投已不到一周，瑞士央行24日再度表明了对公投的反对态度。瑞士央行行长托马斯·乔丹警告称：“公投是很危险的，这会极大限制央行的货币政策操纵空间，妨碍央行对瑞郎和欧元固定汇率控制的能力。”乔丹表示，瑞士央行目前既没有买入、也没有卖出黄金的计划。
分析人士认为，若公投通过，将迫使瑞士央行20%的外汇储备以黄金形式持有，届时瑞士央行将有两项选择，一是出售大量外汇资产，减少资产负债表规模，提高黄金储备比率；此外是大量增持黄金，但将使央行资产负债规模上升，导致瑞士央行的瑞郎对欧元汇率底线1.20面临重大考验。
路透社24日公布的最新民调结果显示，瑞士黄金公投通过的可能性不大，目前公投提案的支持率较10月份的调查下滑了6个百分点至38%，与确保该提案通过最低门槛50%的差距进一步拉大。受此影响，24日国际金价出现回调，截至北京时间24日18时，纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格下跌0.2%至每盎司1195美元。
德意志银行认为，若瑞士黄金公投通过，短期内将对国际金价产生巨大影响，但即便如此，也难以给黄金价格带来显著的长期影响；若公投未能通过，预计金价将承压下跌，因此当前投资者不宜过分乐观。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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