美联储决议和耶论讲话最重点
关键字：美联储决议和耶论讲话最重点
纵观隔夜美联储(FED)货币政策例会对美元的冲击，毫无疑问，美联储令到美元多头深感失望。投资者期盼的是未来加息的明确路线图，然而美联储主席耶伦未能让市场如愿，她甚至没有提到9月加息可能性得到巩固。
虽然耶伦称加息时点上没有定数，但她承认，有足够的数据证据能够确保加息。更为重要的是，耶伦弱化了首次加息的影响，她认为聚焦首次加息时点的做法并不妥，因为美联储会逐渐上调利率水平，政策也仍将具备适应性。
取而代之的，耶伦认为重点在于整个加息的路径，而这绝不会很激进。然而底线是，美联储年内利率将提升——如果就业市场能够保持改善步伐，同时通胀水平朝着既定目标推进。
以下是FOMC声明和经济预期的几个最重点：
1. 点状图暗示2015年会有两次加息；
2. 17个FOMC成员中有15个认为首次加息在今年；
3. 显著调低2015年GDP预期，但上调2016和2017年预期；
4. 上调2015年失业率预期；
5. 维持2015年通胀预期不变，上调2016年预期；
6. 委员们连续4次会议一致通过利率决议；
7. 我们收获的是3年来最短的FOMC声明。
耶伦讲话的最重点：
1. 加息时点未定，但得见数据支持日间增加；
2. 对就业增长和通胀前景乐观，但希望看到薪资增长的更多决定性证据；
3. 弱化首次加息重要性，加息后仍会具有适应性，加息会走渐近道路，市场应关注路径而非“第一次”。
4. 加息过迟可能引发通胀提升风险。
5. 美元稳定，但过去一年的涨幅很大，并对出口造成负面影响。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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