现货黄金下行 关注非农
伦敦金早上开盘价为1226.3美元/盎司，截止至北京时间2014年1月9日11:00，伦敦金报价1226.7美元/盎司，高价为1228.3美元，低价为1218.4美元，波幅为9.9美元。从短期来看，金价仍面临进一步下行压力，风险主要来自于好于预期的非农就业数据提振美元进一步强势反弹。不过若数据差于预期，金价或乘机继续大幅反弹。
美国经济数据：联邦储备理事会(FED)8日公布，2013年11月份消费者信贷余额为3兆873亿美元，虽然月增123.2亿美元，但低于彭博社调查预估的月增143亿美元，且是自去年4月以来最小增幅。人力资源服务公司ADP Research Institute与穆迪分析公司1月8日公布全美民间就业报告：经过季节性因素修正后，12月份民间非农业聘雇人数增加23.8万人，创去年11月（27.6万人）以来的最大增幅。根据彭博社的调查，36位经济学家的预估中间值为增加20万人，预估区间介于17万-22.5万人。11月份数据也由增加21.5万人上修为增加22.9万人。Thomson Reuters报导，零售市调机构ShopperTrak 8日公布的数据显示，2013年感恩节至圣诞节(总计25天)美国零售销售额年增2.7%至2,659亿美元、连续第4年呈现年增。
穆迪下调2014年黄金白银均价：全球三大评级机构之一的穆迪周三(1月8日)发表评论称，下调2014年及其以后黄金和白银均价预期，将2014年及其以后黄金均价预期下调至1100美元/盎司。分别下调黄金白银均价预期反映出现货黄金和白银市场情况的显著恶化。因全球经济依然维持上升势头，各国政府可能会开始收紧先前的激进刺激政策，而各发达经济体通胀依然“没有起色”。穆迪此前曾表明，如果黄金价格低于1300美元/盎司将持续看跌。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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