美联储减码预期降 黄金窄幅整理
上周五黄金期货最高1238.3,最低1220.6,收盘1235.7，ETF抢仓量不变，目前持仓量为827.6吨,全球最大的黄金上市交易基金ETF自去年开始不断减仓抛售，ETF减持黄金持仓量下破前期1320.44吨高点，距最高纪录减少近470吨黄金，黄金ETF持仓跌至3年来的最低水平区域。黄金亚太时段盘初持续在1227.60美元附近窄幅整理，欧盘黄金微幅下行至1220一线，随后逐步向上反弹，美盘黄金刷新日内1238高位，随后于1232-1238美元间窄幅震荡。
美国通胀将制约美联储减码：美国批发物价水平继续下滑，11月生产者物价指数月率下滑0.1%，PPI年率从0.3%回升至0.7%，低于市场预期0.8%，劳工部报告指出能源价格下跌是拖累数据走弱的主要原因，剔除食物和能源后核心PPI年率从1.4%下滑至1.3%。通胀疲软已经逐渐成为担忧因素，尽管三季度和四季度初多数产出数据均显著改善，然而下游需求却无法推动总体物价上升，美国10月CPI年率降至1.0%，PCE年率也降至0.7%，均创2009年10月以来最低水平，并且远低于央行长期目标2.0%，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德在周前讲话中指出通胀疲软值得担忧，通胀持续萎靡可能制约美联储撤出宽松的意愿。
高盛：美联储不会在12月减码：高盛分析师David Mericle给出美联储在12月18日FOMC会议上，提出12月美联储将不会削减QE的三大理由：
第一、 美国经济数据好坏参半，其中非农成最强数据，但预期通胀将成为制约要素；
第二、 高盛分析师认为，虽然市场普遍预期美联储提前缩减购债规模的意愿将增加，但10月会议纪要和近期美联储的评论表明，对于该采取何种形式削减量化宽松规模，美联储官员几乎没有达成共识。
第三、 预期美联储缩减QE的可能性增大，但这是少数人观点，若美联储突然收紧金融环境，将带给市场意外，导致美联储违背通胀目标的承诺。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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