美元继续回落过程 原油反弹短期乐观
现货黄金截止至2019年1月8日3：00收盘于1290.9美元/盎司，昨日现货黄金亚盘开盘小幅回踩后向上发力，经过欧盘一轮窄幅震荡后，美盘有进一步反弹迹象，但在触及1295美元/盎司一线后承压并快速回落，目前金价交投于1289美元/盎司一线。
盛宝银行预测鲍威尔将被解雇：美国经济和美国股市在2019年第一季度断崖式下滑，到2019年夏天，美股将陷入严重恐慌，美国收益率曲线将彻底倒挂，这将证明美联储在2018年12月的加息决定是错误的。由此，特朗普将鲍威尔免职，改任命更加鸽派的明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里接管美联储。卡什卡里一直是美国收紧货币政策的批评者，在卡什卡里的政策帮助下，特朗普又能发行5万亿美元的信贷额度购买财长姆努钦的零息永久债券，以此推行他宏大的基建计划，继续拉动美国经济，并在2020年选举中顺利连任。届时，美国通胀率将飙到6%，但报道出来的只有3%，而美联储政策利率将卡在1%动弹不得，只会存钱的人将会遭受巨大损失。
原油久旱逢甘霖终迎反弹：周一欧洲时段，美元指数呈现震荡下行走势，虽然上周非农报告表现强劲，但美联储主席鲍威尔此后发表的鸽派讲话，仍打压了多头信心。油价则延续了近期的反弹走势，鉴于OPEC本月启动减产协议，油市短期内乐观情绪有所上升。
（为了大家有更好的体验，演播室正在进行设备升级，短期内暂以文字新闻为主，恢复时间待定，敬请留意）
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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