短期难现加息时点 现货黄金低位盘整
关键字：现货黄金走势
【行情回顾】
周四亚洲盘中，国际现货黄金维持在千三关口下午低位盘整，由于昨夜美国方面二季度GDP初值年化环比增4%，远超预期的3%，其中库存变化占了其中的1.66个百分点。而美联储7月FOMC会议再缩100亿美元QE，声明称通胀持续低于2%可能性有些下降，但是短期内联储仍然未有透露出加息的意图，对黄金构成小幅支持。但是日内公布一系列的数据对金银短期趋势均属不利，因此金银出现再次下跌走势。
【基本面分析】
美联储周三结束为期两日会议后发表声明，称美联储进一步推进缩减购债刺激措施的计划，上调对美国经济状况的评估，但重申不急于升息。一旦美国利率水平上升，将鼓励投资者从黄金等没有利息收益的资产中撤走资金。
在未来的几个月里，美联储将持续关注经济和金融发展状况。美联储将继续购买国债和贷款抵押证券，还将适时地动用其它必要的货币政策工具，直至价格稳定背景之下劳动力市场的前景有了实质性改善。如果未来经济数据显示，劳动力市场的改善程度与美联储的预期一致，且通胀朝着长期目标水平前进，委员会可能会在未来的会议上进一步缩减资产购买规模，也会提出较为明确的加息时点，这对于黄金来讲仍然是一个定时炸弹。
【技术分析】
昨日黄金总体震荡幅度较大，由日线上看，黄金收出了一条带上下影线的中阴线，均线组合呈现空头排列现象，短期均线呈现下行状态，kdj指标在底部出现粘合，短期走势不明。而4小时图上看，均线系统空头排列，MACD指标死叉运行于0轴下方，kdj则死叉运行于底部，短期内仍然以空头市场为主。
日内支撑位：1295 1293 1288
日内压力位：1298 1300 1310
虽然美联储昨晚尚未提出加息时点，但是随着美国经济持续复苏，美国的加息时点将会渐行渐近，而经济数据持续做好也不利于黄金走势，因此近期我们大田环球建议黄金将以做空为主，建议进场位置1298，盈利目标1292，止损4美金。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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