美国经济或现神奇反弹 现货黄金上行仍有压力
关键字：现货黄金走势
【行情回顾】
周五欧洲盘中，国际现货黄金继续维持在1315上方震荡盘整，由于日内黄金试图打开1323压力位置的上行空间失败，加上市场预计短期内欧洲央行将不会再度出现新的宽松货币政策，导致金价出现冲高回落的走势。
【基本面分析】
虽然本周公布的美国GDP数据让投资者大失所望，但是业界普遍预期，美国经济暂时受到“风寒”侵袭后，预测二季度经济或走出困局，而伴随通胀逐步高企，美联储提前加息几率似乎正在悄然升高。有分析师认为，未来美联储提前加息或不会对中线黄金升势构成威胁。
美国两大投行高盛和巴克莱逆势上调二季度GDP预期至4%，对未来经济发出积极的信号。巴克莱分析指出，近期的经济指标显示美国经济已经扭转第一季的疲弱态势，PCE通胀指标呈现升势或将促使美联储不久承认在明年6月首次加息的必要性。从黄金走势也可以看到，通胀率有加速上扬的可能性。而美联储对于加息问题会慎之又慎，当然目前在货币委员会中的鹰派选手也在不断增加中，提前加息的可能性还是在不断增加中。这对于黄金的走势来讲，将会带来较大压力。
【技术分析】
由黄金最新的走势上看，国际现货黄金上攻1322一线压力区域后，引起空头反击，导致黄金最终承压下跌至1315位置，跌势有所放缓，可见短期内1315位置是黄金的日内多空分水岭，而均线系统在连续震荡多日后也有走平迹象，预计黄金在作出方向性选择之前仍会维持震荡整理。
日内支撑位：1315 1308 1300
日内压力位：1323 1328 1332
虽然黄金打开上行空间失败，而上行压力也明显存在的情况下，并不适合投资者强行进场，而投资者应该在震荡区间的上轨和下轨捕捉机会。因此，我们建议炒金的投资者在日内逢低做多，若黄金下破1310位置，则可以多单介入，盈利目标1316，止损5美金。而黄金日内若再度上行至1325一线位置，但是出现冲高回落走势，则可以适当布局空单，盈利目标1317，止损6美元。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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