经济前景不明 现货黄金大有可为
关键字：现货黄金行情
【行情回顾】
受恶劣天气影响，美国第一季度的经济表现极差，并且同时公布的5月耐用品订单数据也差强人意。随后公布的6月美国服务业和综合PMI指数则表现良好，但这并不能挽救第一季度GDP的恶劣影响。使国际现货黄金价格最高突破到日内高位1325美元，不过，1325上方明显压力较大，黄金昨晚仍未能顺利突破该压力点位，而贵金属市场也出现承压现象。
【基本面分析】
根据周三晚间美国商务部公布的数据显示，美国一季度GDP终值年化环比下降2.9%，远不及预期。本次GDP下修幅度为1976年有记录以来最大。打压经济的因素包括冬季异常寒冷、长期失业救济到期以及食品发放减少，这些抑制了消费支出。此外，企业补充库存的速度放慢亦产生影响。
由于第一季数据大幅下修，今年经济成长率可能难以达到2%。最新公布的GDP终值反映出医疗保健支出低于原先设想，这带动消费者支出创下2009年第四季以来最低增幅。贸易对经济的拖累亦甚于原先预期。不过，在市场第一轮反应过后，不少投行在事后的解读中依然对二季度美国经济前景颇为乐观，这令黄金出现了冲高回落。
【技术分析】
从黄金4小时图上看，现货黄金行情走势较弱，均线系统的多头排列有弱化迹象，说明短期内黄金的上涨遇阻，若要突破1330上方的压力位置，则必须要有较大的利好刺激。而MACD指标的快慢线向0轴方向运动，红柱量能总体变化不大。RSI指标在50线附近运行，短期内有轻微的向下指示。由总体上看，黄金价格仍然保持在高位震荡，短期内现货黄金和现货白银仍需巩固近期的涨幅。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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