伊拉克局势再度恶化 黄金现货避险光芒
关键字:现货黄金走势
【行情回顾】
周二欧洲盘中,国际现货黄金维持在1315一线震荡盘整。而伊拉克和乌克兰引发的地缘政治维持依旧支撑金价,而美国方面公布的经济数据对金价打压有限,虽然今天晚上美国方面仍然有较多的经济数据公布,但是市场的焦点仍然集中在伊拉克局势方面。
【基本面分析】
地缘政治局势紧张是伦敦金走势上涨的重要原因。特别是伊拉克国内不断升级的紧张形势,推动了投资者加大了看多黄金价格的力度。伊拉克方面,伊拉克东北部小镇具有战略重要性的机场已经落入反叛分子手中,伊拉克政府军控制的伊叙边境上周六陷入反叛势力手中,而安博边境周日也失守。美国国务卿克里称,美国将向伊拉克提供密集、可靠的支持。他还表示,任何国家都没有权利挑选伊拉克领导人,只有伊拉克人民有此权利。
而地缘冲突对金价影响较大,历次战争会促使金价快速上扬。历史统计数据显示,从近四十年发生的几次局部地区战争时间及经历周期看,战争往往发生在金价波动周期中的期初和期末。战争前20~30个交易日涨幅一般情况超过10%,但不会改变金价的中长期走势;战争当日涨幅最大,有时涨幅甚至超5%;在战争爆发90个交易日后影响逐渐消失。
【技术分析】
黄金昨日在摸高到1320位置后,今日早盘出现小幅度下跌,现正在1315位置进行盘整,而行情目前位于布林带上轨附近,布林带向上开口。从短线来看,行情依然是多头走势,由于黄金已经经历了一段时间的震荡整理,在上行趋势当中黄金向上突破的可呢性较大,建议投资者今日在突破1320压力区后进场做多。
本日支撑位:1308 1304 1300
本日压力位:1315 1322 1331
虽然伦敦金行情价格近期在1220压力位置前止步不前,但是我们认为这仅仅是在冲击压力位置前的震荡整理走势,加上由技术形态上看,各均线系统呈现非常明确的多头排列形态,看涨信号明显,虽然短期内黄金上方空间的压力仍然存在,但是在避险需求的支撑之下,突破前期高位也仅仅是时间问题,建议投资者顺势而为,尤其在突破1320压力区域后可以建立多单,盈利目标1331,止损4美金。
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本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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