现货黄金欲进牛市 仍需看联储脸色
关键字：现货黄金走势分析
【行情回顾】
现货黄金上周收于每盎司1316.6美元，涨幅0.19%，创4月份以来的最高结算价，全周涨幅超过3%。美联储在上周的政策会议上传递出维持货币宽松政策的信号，且伊拉克的紧张局势未现好转，虽然日内无重要数据出台，但市场的避险需求亦明显提振了金价的走势。
【基本面分析】
美联储上周四公布的利率决议内容并无太多新意，耶伦的“鸽派”态度使市场对联储的加息预期落空，随后黄金大幅走高也是情理之中的。据某著名世界黄金机构上周末公布的最新调查显示，接近70%的市场人士因美联储利率决议的整体基调偏宽松，推动金价在隔夜接连升破多个关键技术阻力位这一关键因素影响，预计下周金价将上涨。而加拿大丰业银行策略师发表评论称，隔夜黄金突破1285美元和1300美元之后，技术面因素进一步加重了黄金的买盘，触发了自动买盘挂单，使黄金在短时间内出现了大幅上涨。
根据近期金价走势分析，要看黄金的涨幅是否能维持高位，就要关注本周内多位美联储官员发表讲话，这将给予投资者进一步解读FOMC会议结果的机会。市场认为，上周FOMC会议结果中，耶伦的立场偏向鸽派。本周的联储官员讲话中将有多位FOMC投票委员对联储政策发表评论，市场期望可以从联储官员的讲话中进一步窥探美联储的立场。若美联储官员的言论立场，与耶伦保持一致，那么现货黄金、现货白银有望继续得到支撑。
【技术分析】
继上周四开出大阳线之后，周五依然保持高位开出小阳线，虽上影线较长，但依然未能突破30日均线1330位置，且KDJ上升速度较为平稳，但是已经开始进入超买区间，短期内想要进一步上升的阻力较大。而从4小时图来看，金价下方支撑位将维持在1305，若进一步下跌至1296将打破关键位下行。日内做单建议以做多为主，1315进场，止盈1320，止损5美元。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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