现货黄金先抑后扬 关注各国制造业数据
关键字：本日现货黄金行情
【行情回顾】
本日亚市盘面，国际现货黄金价格呈现先抑后扬格局，早盘从1314美元/盎司低开，走势以回调修正为主，亚盘时段最低价录得1309.99美元/盎司，与10日均线1310窄幅交投，由于日间消息面平静，市场继续发酵已发生的避险事件，在中东动荡不稳的环境下，同时受中国和日本最新出炉的制造业PMI提振，金价于亚市尾盘时段迎来一波上涨行情，最高价暂时录得1317.64美元/盎司，后市需关注欧美地区国家的PMI数据对金价的指引。
【基本面分析】
中国6月汇丰制造业采购经理人初值回升至7个月高位50.8，显著高于预期及前值，同时该数据也是今年以来首次高于荣枯分界岭50.0，意味着中国制造业在今年6月份首次转为扩张。分项数据显示，6月份制造业产出指数大幅升至7个月高位51.8，国内订单及出口订单均在扩张，成品库存萎缩，但采购库存呈现扩张，经济学家分析指出，中国经济在微观刺激政策下开始回暖，预期促进稳定增长的政策将持续。
欧盘时段需密切关注欧元区六月制造业和服务业采购经理人指数初值的公布，经济学家预测，该区域综合指数将显示欧元区的制造业和服务业连续第二个月出现衰退，或为三个月来最低值，这暗示着欧元进一步走弱的可能性。
夜间纽盘时段，美国统计局将公布美国五月成屋销售月率，和六月Markit制造业采购经理人指数初值，这是作为美国经济出现明显好转的一个重要转折点，自四月初以来，市场对美国经济的发展预期一直持续改善，若能有更多证据显示美国经济形势正逐步好转，美元将大受提振。
【技术分析】
从日线图上看，国际金价5日均线和10日均线形成金叉后，现金价K线正平行向上运行，布林中轨和其他均线都处于上行通道中，上方关注1320一线主力，下方关注100日均线1300的强劲支撑。附图指标MACD快慢线自下方向上触及0轴继续发散，STOCH线进入超买区，RSI从接近80的超买区域回落。从4小时图上看，布林线开口向上扩张，金价K线位于上轨下方附近，暂时站上5日均线1313，附图指标MACD红色动能柱稍微减少。整体上看，金价下方支撑力较强，需谨防日间回调的风险。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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