避险需求减退 现货黄金低位震荡
关键字：现货黄金价格
【行情回顾】
周二亚市早盘，国际现货黄金继续在1270下方维持震荡，由于昨晚美国经济数据较好，加上美联储将会在今晚凌晨召开议息会议，市场预计美联储将会继续缩减QE的规模，加上黄金自1240触底反弹以来，累积涨幅已经相当大，引起了部分资金的获利出逃。
【基本面分析】
影响近期金价上涨的主要因素当中，地缘政治因素绝对是其中最重要的因素。上周伊拉克安全局势突然陷入动荡，伊拉克反政府武装向政府军发动大规模攻势，并控制了伊拉克北部重镇摩苏尔和提克里特等重要城市，战火即将蔓延至首都巴格达。美国总统奥巴马表示美国暂不考虑向伊拉克派遣地面部队，但已派布什号航空母舰驶入波斯湾海域。虽然伊拉克地区局势的恶化造成了国际油价上涨，为全球经济复苏的前景蒙上了一层阴影，但是在美国的介入之下，预计局势很快得以平息，市场的避险需求将会有所下降。
另外，南非矿工已持续21周的罢工事件开始出现转折，南非矿业公司称已与矿工工会就上调薪资、改善工作环境等问题在原则上达成一致意见，未来铂金、钯金供给紧张的预期得到缓解，因此也造成铂金、钯金价格出现显著下行。因此，不排除同为贵金属的黄金价格会出现下跌。
【技术分析】
由黄金日K线图上看，伦敦金自昨晚触及近期高点1282以来，出现了一波较大幅度的下跌，相继跌穿了30日均线和5日均线的支撑，直指20日均线1265的支撑区域。由技术指标上看，MACD指标的红柱也有所缩短，KDJ指标也自高位开始回落，预示短期内黄金会有继续下挫的可能。
【操作建议】
本日支撑位：1268 1265 1261
本日压力位：1270 1275 1278
由于黄金有调整需求，我们大田环球建议投资者主要以做空为主，若黄金午后突破1270压力位置，则建议投资者在1274压力位置布局空单，日内盈利目标1268，止损5美金。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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