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经济数据难有指引 黄金现货震荡盘整

关键字:现货黄金走势

【行情回顾】

周四晚间黄金现货价格再度下跌,最低一度跌至1251美元/盎司,但一季度美国GDP表现不佳最终让金价从四个月最低水平有所回升。但是总体来说黄金仍未能摆脱下跌趋势,虽然昨晚在下跌途中有所喘息,但是走势仍不乐观。

【基本面分析】

美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,美国上周季调后初请失业金人数减少2.7万人至30.0万人,预期31.8万人,前值修正为32.7万人,初值32.6万人。而美国上周初请失业金人数再度回落,且优于市场预期,表明世界第一大经济体美国的劳动力市场改善势头持续强劲,进一步支撑其二季度的经济复苏,提振了市场的风险意识,资金再度流出黄金等避险资产,使黄金价格再度承压。

而另一方面,美国商务部周四公布的GDP修正值数据显示,今年美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率下修为-1.0%,降幅超出预期的-0.5%,初值为增长0.1%。这是美国2011年第一季度以来经济产出首次出现下滑。由于美元汇率持续上升,导致美国本土存货增速放缓,以及较初值更大的贸易逆差,同时,非住宅建设方面的支出大幅下降也反映了美国房地产市场复苏缓慢的问题,因此市场预计短期内美联储不会收紧货币政策,提振了以美元计价的黄金价格。

【技术分析】

由黄金的日K线图上看,金价走势昨日的跌幅已经有所收窄,跌势趋缓,由于近日黄金的累积跌幅较多,短期内也有一定的反弹需求。同时,黄金在下跌之后一直位于布林线的下轨运行,而KDJ已经开始进入超卖区间,因此在技术上也存在反弹需求,投资者需要适当关注。

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