欧版QE逼近 黄金现货略有承压
关键字：现货黄金走势
【行情回顾】
周二欧洲盘前，国际现货黄金价格在震荡过后出现小幅下跌，但是仍处于窄幅震荡区间当中，截止现时为止，国际现货黄金交投在1285一线位置，尚未正式作出方向性选择。
【基本面分析】
欧洲央行行长德拉基周一表示，央行必须“特别警惕”欧元区物价螺旋式下行的风险。他还指出，央行不接受通胀在过长时间内保持在过低水平。德拉基称，欧洲央行对通缩保持高度警惕，随时准备采取有针对性的常规举措加以应对，且全面资产购买计划仍是选项之一。他在发表题为“长期低通胀环境下的货币政策”的讲话中指出，为防止物价预期回落，可能有必要采取更多预防性举措。其他欧洲央行的决策者之前曾暗示，央行准备在6月5日的政策会议上采取行动，以抗击低通胀，和欧元区银行业惜贷的问题。德拉基的讲话巩固了上述暗示。
由于欧洲央行行长德拉基的言论坚定了市场有关该央行下月将放宽货币政策的预期，因此近期欧元对美元创下3个月以来的新低，而美元指数则在79下方出现触底回升，导致以美元计价的贵金属和大宗商品近期走势均不甚理想。但是，笔者认为，虽然短期内美元指数上升将会不利于黄金等大宗商品的走势，然而，若欧央行在下月实行欧版QE，美元指数出现大幅上涨将会破坏美国的经济复苏计划，因此，美联储很可能再度通过持续宽松的政策来对冲欧央行的QE政策，若是这样，则全球将会再度进入到宽松的货币潮当中，对于黄金当然是一大利好。
【技术分析】
由黄金的日K线图上看，伦敦金在欧洲盘前出现的震荡下跌，再度击穿了近期支撑位1285-1290一线位置，不排除日内会测试1277前期支撑位，横盘多日的黄金现正处于三角形整理的末端，无论是选择突破向上还是突破向下，都不会让人感到太过意外。由于近期黄金在下跌的过程中一度触及1273-1275一线防区就马上触底反弹，因此在黄金尚未正式跌破该位置的时候，我们大田贵金属还是以轻仓做空为主，切勿过分看空。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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