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现货黄金小幅下修 关注日内欧洲数据

关键字:本日国际现货黄金走势

【基本面分析】

亚市早盘,日本公布了第一季度实际GDP初值季率增长1.5%,数据显示创2011年第三季度以来的最快增速,由于其4月1日上调了销售税,提振了日本的消费需求,同时公布的日本3月季调后第三产业活动指数月率劲升2.4%,同样是受到上调消费税拉动的影响,两大数据公布后美元兑日元探底回升,国际现货黄金价格出现小幅回落,但总体承压有限。

下午欧盘时段需留意法国、德国、意大利和欧元区第一季度GDP初值年率,稍后还将公布欧元区4月CPI终值年率。上周欧洲央行行长德拉基在新闻发布会上曾表示,对于长期低通胀前景并不满意,可能将于6月采取行动,以推升通胀率。目前市场对于下午欧元区GDP数据较为乐观,但对于4月CPI通胀率则仍难持乐观态度,所以除非数据大幅好于预期,否则恐难打消欧洲央行在6月实施宽松预期。德国此前公布的数据较为疲软,令德国央行官员倾向支持欧洲央行宽松政策,若本次德国GDP数据表现不如预期,则德拉基6月行动就更有底气,届时或推出降息、负存款利率及量化宽松等政策,将会长线利空欧元,提振美元走强,从而打压国际金价未来走势。

【技术分析】

日线图上,国际金价昨日大幅反弹,K线收取中阳,5日、10日和20日均线粘合开口向上,价格站上均线系统上方,KDJ指标在50附件呈现金叉,MACD红色动能柱增强,快慢线自下向上朝零轴靠拢,短期内金价呈现初始上行趋势,4小时图中,国际金价连收两根大阳,下方站稳1300关口,KDJ和MACD走势向上,关注上方1315初始压力位和下方1300的支撑作用。

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