现货黄金冲高回落 窄幅回调整理
关键字：本日国际现货黄金走势
【行情回顾】
5月13日亚市盘面，国际现货黄金价格冲高回落，最高点暂录得1298美元，午盘时段小幅回落至1290.3美元，乌克兰东部公投宣布独立事件引发的市场避险情绪在昨夜纽盘得到体现，而美元走强拉动美股上涨也打压黄金的上涨势头，金价继续于1300下方盘整。
【基本面分析】
市场预计美国4月零售销售数据明显改善。或将表明美国4月和5月零售商店的销售增速加快。在经历一季度国内生产总值GDP增速放缓的情况下，美国二季度经济增速或攀升至3%以上。强劲的美国经济数据，加上CPI的上升将加剧人们对美联储提早升息的预期。此外，市场对乌克兰危机不断升级的担忧，令避险情绪持续升温。
巴克莱银行报告称，进入5月以来，全球黄金ETF的持有量已经减少了差不多5吨，尽管本年2月和3月黄金ETF的持有量增加，而去年黄金ETF的持有量则大幅减少，这被认为是金价暴跌背后的一大因素。从最大的黄金ETF、SPDR黄金基金来看，进入5月其持有量已经减少了7.48吨，甚至从4月1日至今，仅有两个交易日有流入。这两个交易日分别4月14日和4月15日，当时金价触及三周最高水平看，接近1330美元/盎司。
美国4月工业产出以及5月纽约联储制造业指数也值得关注。工业生产是衡量制造业、矿业与公共事业的实质产出重要的经济指标，而纽约联储制造业指数则反应了纽约地区的经济发展水平，都是较为重要的经济数据。
【技术分析】
日线图上，国际金价持续下探1280美元/盎司后反弹，短线还是倾向于进一步上探，不过需要突破1315美元/盎司的初步阻力才能有望真正转为看涨，下方初步支持关注1290美元/盎司，本日建议持有观望为主。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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