乌克兰局势好转 现货黄金承压
关键字：现货黄金走势
【行情回顾】
上周由于复活节假期影响，周四晚间国际现货黄金维持震荡整理市场交易平淡。基本面也是消息平稳，四方会谈取得意外的新进展，阻止了乌克兰危机进一步恶化；欧央行官员就宽松政策仍未给出明确说法；美国数据的走强使得美联储更加关注通胀率，但美联储似乎仍愿意保持鸽派立场，加息时间仍模糊未定。周四美黄金走出震荡下行走势，但黄金并未跟随，而是维持窄幅整理，最终收一根十字星。
【基本面分析】
乌克兰方面，上周四结束的四方会谈意外取得新进展，会后俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫发表讲话称，日内瓦四方会谈同意发布实施初步措施的联合声明以缓和乌克兰局势。近期关注俄罗斯是否能够遵守约定，乌克兰方面亲俄势力是否会采取更为激进的行动进而恶化乌克兰局势。
欧洲方面，欧央行行长德拉基将欧元升值与货币政策行动捆绑在一起，使得欧元汇率近期有明显回落，但是，如果欧央行不采取行动，欧元很可能再度加速升值，届时，欧央行再度调整货币政策或无可避免。
美国方面，周四公布的数据均创历史新高，表明美国经济稳步复苏，然而就货币政策问题，美联储官员似乎仍保持鸽派立场，如果通胀率不上升，加息时间仍未确定。
【技术分析】
由日K线图上看，黄金正在接近前期低位1277.5，因此我们大田贵金属认为，短期内投资者需要关注该位置的支持力度，若1277位置能够有效止跌，则短期内黄金有形成双底的可能性，金价则有望出现一波反弹，若1277位置最终失守，则黄金可能继续向下寻求支持，短期看向1250位置。
做多：1280开仓，止盈1295 止损1271
做空：1298开仓，止盈1286 止损1305
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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