乌俄纠纷再起 现货黄金伺机而动
关键字：现货黄金分析
【行情回顾】
上周五非农行情之后，黄金价格在日线上触及本轮调整斐波那契的第一压力关口附近后受压高位整理，而昨日的行情亚洲盘由于清明假期影响，市场异常清淡，而欧美方面又没有什么数据支持，所以在本轮调整斐波那契的1300压力关口下，尽管阻力不算很大，但还是将黄金价格再度压了回来，日线小幅回落后，最终收线在1297附近，以一根下影线稍长的小阴线收尾。
【消息面】
据外媒报道，6号开始，乌克兰东部城市顿涅茨克举行了抗议集会。6号当晚起，顿涅茨克的抗议者占领了顿涅茨克州政府大楼，并升起俄罗斯国旗。
据乌克兰媒体报道，占领顿涅茨克州政府的约50名亲俄代表，在7号召开会议，并且表决通过了“顿涅茨克人民共和国”主权宣言。与会者还宣布，将在5月11号之前进行全民公决。他们向外界表示，“如果基辅非法政权企图进行阻挠，我们将请求俄罗斯联邦领导人派来维和部队”。不少抗议示威者还高喊着“让我们公投”和“普京救救我们”的口号。
评级机构穆迪4月4日将乌克兰国债评级下调一档至Caa3，给出的原因是克里米亚地区相关的政治危机升级；评级展望为负面。穆迪表示，考虑到5月即将举行的总统大选以及今年晚些时候的议会选举，预计乌克兰国内政治风险依然很高。该机构还称，乌克兰政治危机升级的同时还伴随着经济挑战，预计该国今年国内生产总值(GDP)将萎缩大约5%-10%。
【技术分析】
由黄金日线图上看，现货黄金价格处于1300点整数关口之前，而且1300点关口和60日均线基本发生重叠，表明在1300关口的位置有较大的阻力。虽然近期黄金在下探后出现触底反弹，均线系统有所修复，MACD指标的绿柱量能继续缩短，说明多头信心稍有恢复。但是市场观望气氛仍然相当浓厚，在上周“超级周”公布的非农就业数据和失业率均坏于市场预期后，投资者暂时还未能找到明确的方向，导致金价走势只能再度在1300点关口前徘徊。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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