3.27国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014）
关键字：3.27国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014）
行情回顾：美国投资数据好于预期，但未能推动美元上涨，ICE美元指数仍受阻100日均线80.50；贵金属低位整理，黄金暂时企稳1300上方。
【基本面】
美国2月耐用品订单月率上升2.2%，远高于市场预期0.8%，商务部报告指出，飞机和汽车订单大幅增长是数据改善的主要原因，商用飞机订单在2月份强劲增长13.6%，汽车订单则增长3.6%。剔除运输部门的核心耐用品订单月率上升0.2%，与广泛预期0.1%基本持平，衡量未来商业投资的关键指标——非国防资本品新订单 (除飞机) 下滑1.3%，经济学家此前预期升幅为0.8%，这是过去6个月中第四次出现下滑，1月核心资本品订单增幅也大幅向下修正，这无疑敲响了投资能否延续加速增长的警钟。上述数据部分可能受到恶劣天气的影响，不排除3月数据明显回升的可能性。周四美国将公布四季度GDP终值，预期经济增速从2.4%上修至2.7%，符合或高于预期的结果有助于提振投资者对美国前景的信心。不过基本面分析是一回事，基本面因素对货币的影响则是另一回事，美国数据对美元的影响在短期内明显受限，ICE美元指数依旧上行乏力，如果美元指数在100日均线80.50初持续破败将重新转为下行，届时贵金属面临的短期回落风险将得到缓解。
北美时段已无重要美国数据，地缘政治局势也缺乏新的进展，继续关注1300整数字能否为金价提供有效支持，只有有效下破才能确认趋势转为向下，否则金价仍有再度冲高的可能性。白银短期走势滞后于黄金，银价接连跌破日图支持，技术上已经确认打开进一步下行空间，短线交易者不妨尝试反弹破败后逢高做空；考虑到下方不远处18.50-19美元构成中期强支持区间，对于中线交易者来说仍以观望为主。
【技术分析】
金价低位整理，日图价格暂时企稳200日均线1300上方，下破将打开大幅下行空间，持续企稳在可能再度冲高，暂时观望。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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