3.25国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014）
关键字：国际现货黄金
【基本面】
加息预期发酵 黄金大跌
美联储此前在上周的政策决议中意外宣布将提前加息这一消息状况，目前仍然在市场上继续发酵，这是拖累金价进一步走低的主因，而市场多头的止损操作也进一步加剧的黄金的跌幅。虽然欧元区各国以及美国的制造业PMI初值并不完全尽如人意，且又有消息称俄罗斯再度向俄乌边境集结军队，但但是这对金价的提振效果几乎为零。
国外机构认为黄金仍有下跌空间
高盛(Goldman Sachs)上周末发布研报认为黄金年内还将重挫，称此前支撑金价的因素均是暂时的，金价今年有望回撤1050美元/盎司。高盛在研报中称，金价上涨受到三个不可持续的因素支撑：天气造成的美国经济增长放缓、中国需求因信贷担忧大幅上升、地缘政治紧张态势加剧。
【技术分析】
现货黄金日线图上，布林带收口金价运行于5MA和250MA之间区域，RSI超卖区域略显勾头，MACD快线向上逐渐穿过慢线形成金叉，空头力竭头，K线再次试探下方MA270支撑位。上周尾金价自1320触底反弹，再次回归1342，反弹近22美金，但随即回吐也快，收盘于1333，本周初金价则小幅低开1330，目前显然进入震荡环节，因此个人认为金价还是主要为回落趋势，4小时图形上，布林通道持续向下运行，K线已经开始偏离布林下轨，颓势不堪。附图指标MACD零轴下方金叉之后再度形成死叉，空头势能明显加大，KDJ、RSI开始走平于低位，短期支撑于1308,上方重点关注MA10以及布林带中轨阻力分别位于1323和1326这里，短线阻力可参考MA5日均线1314位置，激进者可待反弹至此处顺势跟进空单。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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