3.10国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014年）
关键字：3.10国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014年）
行情回顾：欧洲时段，美国非农报告高于预期，提振市场信心，ICE美元指数反弹0.1%至79.80，非美货币自近期高点回落，贵金属大幅走低，黄金最低跌至1330美元，白银则跌破200日均线。
【基本面】
美国2月非农就业人数新增17.5万，好于市场预期15万，12月和1月非农新增就业人数分别上修至8.4万和12.9万，增幅总共为2.5万。与此同时2月失业率小幅从6.6%小幅回升至6.7%，市场此前预期为维持在6.6%，劳动力参与率仍然维持在63.0% (接近35年最低点) 。总体来说非农报告表现不俗，部分受到气候的突发因素影响，美国12月和1月非农数据显著走弱，多数市场分析人士均认为2月和3月数据将明显回升，现实确认预期利于提振市场信心，ICE美元指数在数据后强劲反弹，后市有望进一步反弹至80-80.50区间，欧元在连续上涨后可能面临回调修正，关注1.38能否提供有效支持，若汇价回落至1.38下方则本周上破为虚假突破，相反持续企稳则技术上确认打开上行空间。
就短期而言，黄金价格在1330-1355高位盘整，上方1360-1380构成中期强阻力区间，若未来数周价格未能上破则技术上面临转为走弱的严峻风险，建议前期获利颇丰的多头可选择将部分头寸平仓，并耐心等待行情的进一步发展。非农过后市场焦点将转为3月中旬美联储利率决议，笔者认为，虽然1-2月公布的多数产出数据明显走弱，但不足以证明美国经济加速增长的趋势已经结束，再加上2月非农报告明显回升，FOMC将倾向于进一步削减定量宽松 (继续削减100亿美元) 。密切关注美联储是否更新前瞻指引，为了抵制提前加息预期发酵，预计美联储会强化维持长期零利率政策的前瞻性指引。
【技术分析】
日图价格高位震荡，目前空头正在测试10日均线支持，下破则可能进一步回落至200日均线1324，更下方支持是200日均线1300，只有跌破1300才能确认趋势再度转为向下。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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