2.24国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014）
关键字：2.24国际现货黄金价格走势分析（2014）
行情回顾：欧洲时段，市场交投清淡，周四公布的美国经济数据表现不俗，提振ICE美元指数小幅反弹，日图价格企稳80整数字上方；贵金属继续高位盘整。
【基本面】
美国1月通胀报告符合预期，1月CPI年率小幅回升但核心CPI下滑至1.6%，显示整体物价上升压力仍维持温和。2月Markit制造业PMI从53.7回升至56.7，出乎市场意料，多数分析师和经济学家均将美国短期数据恶化归咎于超出常规的寒冷天气，并普遍认为数据有望在未来数周重新回升。美国1月咨商会经济领先指标上升0.3%至99.5，升幅略低于市场预期0.4%，咨商会报告指出，虽然领先指标在12月缺乏增长，但6个月增速仍实现平稳上升，暗示美国经济增长动能有望在2014年上半年进一步增强。花旗美国经济惊喜指数 (CESI) 仍维持在零下方，周四数据后未能实现明显改善，尽管PMI和领先指标表现不俗，但可能难以推出美元持续上涨，笔者认为只有经济数据持续超出预期才有望激励投资者重新买进美元，并扭转美元弱势，否则贵金属短期内面临的上行风险仍高于下行风险。
下周主要关注美国四季度GDP修正值和美联储委员讲话。由于2013年末部分重要经济数据 (零售销售和工业生产) 向下修正，市场预期四季度GDP将面临下修风险，部分机构投资者预测四季度经济增速可能从3.2%下修至2.3-2.5%。符合或低于预期的结果可能继续打压投资者对经济前景的乐观信心，无疑会加重美元下行压力。另一方面，美联储主席耶伦将在参议院进行国会作证，预计耶伦将继续为QE削减辩护，此外将有多达7位联储委员在公开场合发表讲话，其对经济，就业和通胀前景的评论无疑是关注焦点，若美联储继续表示对经济前景持乐观信心，可能轻微打压黄金回调，或提供逢低吸纳的较好机会。
【技术分析】
金价延续高位盘整，日图价格企稳200日均线1305上方，若短期回落至上述位置，可尝试逢低买进，上方目标是2013年10月高点1360。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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