新兴市场资产暴跌 黄金现货价格涨势停止
关键字：黄金现货价格
【基本面】
受到多重因素的影响，上周新兴市场资产暴跌，新兴市场货币再次经历了类似于去年5月份的跌势。不同的是，那时引发因素主要因素是美联储主席伯南克暗示将于2013年年底开始削减QE规模，引发大量资金逃离新兴市场。而此次下跌除市场美联储本周将削减100亿美元资产购买规模外，新兴市场内部的矛盾的恶化也加剧了这些市场资产的跌势。
另外，新兴市场新一轮危机的爆发似乎也与中国有关，上周公布的中国汇丰制造业PMI跌破50正式陷入收缩状态，加剧市场对中国经济前景的担忧，尽管市场已有一些心理准备。另外，中国影子银行以及地方债务高企等问题也令笼罩在新兴市场上空的阴霾挥之不去，使得新兴市场就像“惊弓之鸟”，毫无防备能力。 尽管欧美经济和金融市场持续改善，但新兴市场的持续下跌势必殃及欧美市场。受此影响，道指上周五重挫近320点，上周累计下跌3.5%，创下自2012年5月以来的最大单周跌幅。欧股风向标泛欧斯托克600指数上周五大跌2.4%，西班牙IBEX35指数暴跌3.6%，MSCI新兴市场指数下跌1.3%。
不过美股的表现将明显好于新兴市场，因此新兴市场止跌，欧美股市可能将率先反弹。今日土耳其央行表示明日召开紧急会议后里拉避险情绪有所缓和，美股期货即企稳反弹。周三关注美联储利率决议，在新兴市场大跌之际，伯南克的讲话可能十分谨慎。
【技术分析】
周K线上，K线位于布林带中轨下方，布林带持平，MA均线短中长期指标交叉，MA5均线小幅上扬，附图MACD在0轴下方持平运行，指标中性；日K线上，K线位于布林带中轨上方，布林带持平，MA均线中长期指标纷纷上扬，附图MACD在0轴上方持平运行，指标中性偏强；4小时K线上，K线位于布林带中轨上方，布林带开口，MA均线中长期指标开口纷纷下滑，附图MACD在0轴上方持平运行，指标中性偏弱。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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