12.23黄金价格走势分析（2013）
关键字：12.23黄金价格走势分析（2013）
【基本面】
上周四公布的美国就业数据低于预期，上周初请失业金人数意外上升1万至37.9万，触及今年3月新高，初请四周均值上升1.325万至34.35万，也回升至五周高点。虽然初请数据被视为美国就业市场的领先指针，不过短期数据 (2-3周) 恶化并不能说明就业加速改善的中期趋势已经戛然而止，对短期数据进行过度解读往往徒劳无功。美国11月咨商会领先指标月率上升0.8%，高于前值0.6%和预期0.7%，连续5周持续走高，暗示美国经济在明年上半年有望继续加速扩张，该指标往往用于预测未来6个月的经济表现。
美国三季度GDP再度向上修正，GDP年率终值上修至4.1%，经济学家此前普遍预测年率终值维持在3.6%。商务部报告显示，三季度个人消费同比增速为2.0%，远高于初步估计1.4%，消费是推动美国经济复苏的核心动力，此外商业投资和净出口也显著上修。华尔街日报报告指出，三季度GDP增速中40%由存货上升推动，企业或厂商在总共囤积约1157亿美元商品，然而如果企业不能将囤积的商品在未来全部销售，那么可能导致四季度GDP显著回落，接受华尔街日报调查的经济学家对四季度美国GDP的预测中值为2.1%。通胀数据继续下滑，三季度个人消费支出物价指数年率 (PCE) 中值小幅下修至1.9%，核心PCE年率终值则下修至1.4%，物价低靡已经被市场充分预期。尽管产出数据华丽，但投资者反应平淡，ICE美元指数小幅上冲后快速回落，黄金并未进一步下行，美10年期国债收益率虽小幅上行但并未上破2.95%。未来一周缺乏风险事件和重要数据，QE削减短期内有望延续。
【行情分析】
黄金周一关注的阻力位是1205和1212这两个阻力，短期的支撑看1197和1187。在西方圣诞节日周，行情可能会比较有限，目前运行于1187-1212间的区间概率较大。对于黄金的操作我们就耐心等待位置，逢高做空为主。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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