Fed提前削减QE几率增大 伦敦金价格大跌
关键字：伦敦金价格、金价大跌
【基本面】
美国10月零售销售年率回升至3.9%，高于9月增速3.2%，零售销售月率上升0.4%，高于市场预期，商务部报告显示，汽车销售增长对数据回升贡献良多，汽车销售增长1.3%，剔除汽车后的核心零售销售月率依旧增长0.2%，小幅高于预期0.1%。零售销售占个人消费支出比例为三分之一，消费是推动美国经济复苏的核心动力，零售数据意外回升确实鼓舞人心，然而与长期均值相比，例如1980年至今零售销售年率均值6.3%，10月增速仍显不足，经济加速扩张需要消费实现更加强劲的增长。美国10月CPI年率从1.2%降至1%，与经济学家预期相符，10月CPI月率意外下滑0.1%，核心CPI年率维持在1.7%。日内数据再度确认美国通胀萎靡不振，前期公布的10月PCE年率从1.1%降至0.9%。尽管产出数据和就业市场持续改善，通胀持续下滑可能制约FOMC退出宽松的意愿，美联储拥有实现充分就业和稳定物价的双重使命，联储委员制定的长期通胀目标为2.0%。
ICE美元指数数据后小幅冲高但又迅速转为回落，日图价格继续受阻长期阻力位81.50-81.80，持续破败无疑面临大幅回落风险。北美时段关注10月联储决议会议纪要，预期纪要内容继续为宽松政策辩护，这可能对美元形成短期利空。前不久美联储下任主席耶伦在国会作证时继续强调宽松倾向一度令美元承压下跌。黄金和白银均已跌破日图重要支撑，不能排除贵金属已经提前回归中期下行趋势。
随后美联储周三公布的10月会议纪要显示，随着经济状况的改善，该行可能“在未来几个月中”缩减量化宽松规模。这意味着未来几个月美联储削减QE的几率很大，也暗示美联储已经将该议案提上议程，立场视为更加鹰派，打压美股尾盘回落，早盘曾一度反弹。
【技术分析】
黄金日内大幅下跌，跌破6月份呢以来上行趋势线打开进一步下行空间，后市逢高做空。
操作建议：
1、 阻力位1360、1300、1253，若破败则逢高做空；
2、 支持位1200整数位，若反弹，做多，若破败，则逢高做空；
3、 支持位1180.15、1100，若反弹，空头回补平仓。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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