两党僵局有进展 贵金属走势陷入震荡下跌
关键字：贵金属走势、
【基本面】
美联储9月决议会议纪要缺乏惊喜，纪要内容继续强调宽松政策基调，并表示仍有可能在年末前削减定量宽松。国会参众两院对财政问题的争论不断升级，货币政策讨论暂时淡出视野，然而就中长期内而言联储政策预期对商品市场的影响更具决定性，财政僵局对商品市场的影响只会在短期内发挥作用。美国上周出清失业金人数上升6.6万至37.4万，远高于市场预期30.7万，劳工部表示政府关闭导致初请失业金人数增加1.5万，此外初请增幅的一半来自于加州技术性问题的调整。政府关闭已经对就业市场构成消极影响，不过除非政府长期关闭，否则难以威胁就业市场温和改善的趋势，再加上加州技术性问题解决之后初请数据将回归正常，所以日内数据的超预期上升并非就业市场突然恶化的标志。
美国预算和债务问题出现积极进展，周三奥巴马与国会民主党领袖举行会面，日内将与众议院共和党领袖会晤，这是财政僵局以来双方首度谈判。另一方面最新消息显示众议院共和党正在考虑在没有任何附带条件的情况下将债务上限触及时间延后6周，该消息一度刺激风险偏好回升，美股期货盘前大幅上涨，VIX波动率指数下降8.5%至17.2，周三该指数冲高至20上方，违约担忧也显著缓解，一个月国库券收益率时段内下降17%至0.23%，周三短期利率徘徊在0.35%的高位。从过去财政僵局来看，奥巴马和共和党达成临时协议并短期提高债务上限的可能性确实存在，对本次债务上限之争，民主党和共和党也不排除再度将实质问题押后而结束这场政治游戏。债务危机期间，担忧情绪持续升级尚且难以推动黄金上行，若预算和债务问题短期内得以解决，则避险情绪的回落可能令黄金面临严峻的下行风险。
【技术分析】
金价继续受阻下行趋势线和10/20日均线，持续破败暗示回落风险，下方支持关注10月低点1278，下破则打开进一步下行空间，继续关注价格在趋势线表现，倾向逢高做空。
银价回落暂时企稳10/20日均线，尽管价格上破8月末下行趋势线，但随后反弹未能上破50日均线22.50，上破22.50才能打开进一步上行空间，下方支持关注100日均线21.40，下破则指向7月高点20.60，后市价格或陷入震荡，观望为主。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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