国际黄金今年下跌23% 因预期美联储退出宽松
关键字：国际黄金
【基本面】
印度珠宝首饰出口促进委员会（GJEPC）表示，最新的数据显示，印度9月份的黄金进口量已经较前月的3.38公吨倍增至7.24公吨，该会并预计10月份黄金进口量将达到30公吨，主要因为印度央行厘清黄金进口的限制规定，搁置在机场的进口黄金得以放行的影响。GJEPC也表示，9月份印度黄金进口均是来自于特别经济区，国内其他地区的黄金进口自7月22日央行宣布新的黄金进口限制措施以来已经基本停滞。该会也预计2014财年印度的黄金进口量将降至800公吨以下。
印度央行7月22日宣布，业者所进口的黄金当中，必须有20%是提供给加工后的再出口业务。不过，这份规定有些模糊，导致买家缩手、并转而使用在4、5月份囤积的库存。此后央行厘清，获得政府批准的黄金进口机构，其供应给国内特别经济区、出口导向单位以及星级贸易商的黄金，不能被视为是用于出口。印宝石珠宝贸易联合会会长Bachhraj Bamalwa九月初表示，搁置在孟买机场的黄金约有250公斤。
金价今年以来下跌23%，主要因为预期美国联储局将逐渐退出量化宽松政策的影响。澳洲资源与能源经济局（BREE）本周发布的季报将2014年的平均金价预估自每盎司1,340美元下调至1,275美元，称联储局终究会减少其资产购买规模，此对金价将造成压力。BREE预计，自7月起的2013-2014财年，澳洲黄金产量将较上年度的254公吨下滑至242公吨，低于此前预估的263公吨；黄金出口量预估较上年度的280公吨略增至282公吨，但低于上一份季报所预估的304公吨。澳洲是仅次于中国大陆的第二大黄金生产国。
【技术分析】
日线图昨日报收一根阳十字星，整体上K线还是运行在下跌通道中，昨日K线收阳那要注意金价会以在周二和周三走出的双底向上反抽。
四小时图昨日遇阻在前期高点1322一线，走出了一根十字线和一根小流星线，主图指标均线走平，均线呈多头排列。
小时图在昨晚探底回升后尾盘一直处于高位震荡状态，主图指标均线走平、布林带有向上开口的迹象，指标多头缩量。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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