布拉德讲话引发市场不确定性 金价再次承压
关键字：金价走势
【行情回顾】
黄金亚市早盘延续上周五跌势。上周五圣路易斯联主席布拉德在彭博电视上讲话，称可能在10月利率决议开始小幅缩减QE，黄金价格大幅下跌。分析师表示未来资产购买计划仍充满不确定性，布拉德的讲话引发交易者对于美联储资产购买计划的重新考量，将维持金价长期倾向于下行的观点，下方目标看到8月低点1273美元/盎司。截止到9月20日全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR的黄金持仓量29,293,661盎司，较上一交易日减少0.1976%。全球最大白银ETF-iShares Silver Trust截止9月20日的白银持仓量为10,602.67吨，与前一交易日持平。
【基本面分析】
圣路易斯联储主席布兰德表示：市场对缩减QE预期反应过度。美联储不削减购债规模的决定是一项艰难的抉择，没有真正实现经济数据改善，FOMC选择了观望。目前的失业率为7.3%，在官方目标7%以上，与此同时美国通胀实际上正在下行。美联储布拉德讲话过后，美元指数持续走高。目前来看，市场将会对往后的美国就业数据以及通胀数据更为敏感。如果之后的非农报告或者CPI数据令人失望，美元无疑还将继续承压。从短期上看，虽然美联储在9月会议上按兵不动的决定对市场产生了重大影响，而目前市场的预期已经转向了10月会议。事实上，我们甚至认为美元的回调或许是做多黄金或美元/日元的良机。
【技术分析】
日K线图显示，黄金收取了30美元的实体阴柱，上周三一波大涨后，周四高位受阻日线布林带中轨1375一线回落，周五一波受消息的影响再次一波大跌超过30美金，30日均线压制目前下移至1365，短期内5日均线压制于1335一线，MACD随机技术指标开始死叉出头向下，KDJ小幅向上，RSI死叉向下，在连续的暴涨暴跌之后，技术指标开始被破坏，下方1304-1310区域将成为短期内多头的最后一波防线，视乎短期内能否跌破此点位，跌破则金价继续下行至1200美元。
现货金现报1320美元/盎司，下方支撑关注整数关口1300美元/盎司，上方阻力关注上周高点1375.13美元/盎司。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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