预测美联储QE收缩规模小 需较长时间实现全退
关键字：美联储QE
【行情分析】
近期由于”美叙战争随时爆发”的利好刺激，促使金银价格盘中多次震荡上升，但”战争因素”的不确定性，还是让市场的避险情绪逐渐减弱。
全球通胀预期因美国QE收缩即将实施而受到有效果控制，造成了金银价格在短期内缺少了保值需要的支撑。美国QE收缩的市场预期越加激烈，不仅仅是为兑现美联储的承诺，抑制通胀预期，更主要的是美国维持长期的超宽松货币政策，会受到市场对美元稳定性和可信度的严重质疑。因此，判断美联储将在9月下旬或第四季度，展开QE收缩操作，这将会造成金银价格下行主要原因。
然而，美国国债上限将再度提高的预期，对美国QE收缩操作也会产生较大影响。因此预测QE收缩的实际规模将很小，并将以较长时间的逐渐收缩来实现最终的全部退出。由此可见，虽然有美联储退出QE操作的利空因素影响金银价格走势，但实际的全球货币环境还将维持较长时间的充裕和整体宽松。
另外，欧洲、日本、金砖五国等发展中国家，都将在较长时间内保持货币供给的充裕。这为金银价格的未来走向，提供了强有力的支撑。因此，金银价格在消化短期利空因素的干扰之后，将出现中长线投资的入市良机。
【盘面分析与指导】
伦敦金即时报价1308.3美元/盎司。
现阶段金价预测区间1303-1348美元。
下周四美联储将会公布利率决议，如果美联储能够缩减量化宽松规模，黄金将受重挫。
所以无论是从目前黄金运行的特点上来看，还是从基本面的判断来看，做空黄金的风险会相对较小一些。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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