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今日下午国际黄金走势分析

关键字:今日黄金走势

【基本面】

昨晚叙利亚外长同意俄罗斯提出的交出化学武器的提议,这样一来,今日愈演愈烈的叙利亚战争危机出现峰回路转的迹象,而奥巴马则被逼入了骑虎难下的两难境地。

除了突发的地缘政治危机外,近期支撑金银持续反弹的另一个重要因素非美国债务上限问题莫属。随着美国国会夏季休假的结束,关于债务上限的争论将会再次席卷整个华盛顿。如果债务上限问题的谈判再次令美国政府面临违约的可能,那么这对美国经济的稳步复苏无疑是致命的打击。

美联储在下周,也就是9月17日到18日的例会中决定开始削减每个月850亿美元的资产采购项目的规模,市场对联储决策的预期是将采购速度每个月减少100亿美元到150亿美元,如果联储局相比市场预期中更加激进地调整了债卷采购项目规模,黄金价格可能继续向下需求支撑,只要QE退出之门一旦被打开,金银必然会迎来新一轮的下跌之势。但是如果美联储会议后的观点更偏鸽派,不如极小规模缩减QE,甚至是将缩减QE的时间表延后,短期内黄金价格将出现上涨。

【行情分析】

因为叙利亚事件出现转机,令黄金价格明显下跌,但是1355是金价近期的重要支持位,再加上9月是黄金销售的好月份,在过去40年,每年9月都是黄金增长最快的,平均增幅2.3%,印度很快就要迎接婚礼季,之后便是日本的传统节日排灯节,12月则是交换礼物的圣诞节,再之后就是中国新年,这些都是黄金的销售旺季。

所以预计今天金价会在1355附近有强力支持,预计今天会在1350-1370区间上落。

 

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