多方因素下 黄金价格震荡格局难破
周四(6月13日)因美国经济数据好于预期，美国商务部(DOC)周四公布的数据显示美国5月零售销售月率增0.6%，预估增0.4%，为2月来最高。美国劳工部(DOL)周四公布的数据显示，美国6月8日当周初请失业金人数为33.4万人，预期为34.5万，前值没有修正，为34.6万人，整体低于预期。暗示美联储可能提早缩减购债，金价因此承压。另一方面，尽管近日中国买家卷土重来，但黄金买盘仍略显不足，加之印度黄金进口量骤降，料无力支撑金价上行。印度黄金需求依然低迷，从5月开始进口商和批发商黄金销售不畅。印度政府上周将黄金进口关税上调1/3至8%，并限制银行业等机构进行黄金融资，以降低经常帐赤字，令该国国内黄金需求降温。同时，由于之前日本央行宣布利率维持不变，令市场担忧其他央行会逐步退出量化宽松政策，整体投资情绪谨慎，黄金吸引力下降，关注今日(6月14日)欧元区5月CPI终值年率，若数据能有所上升，将利好欧元走势。此外今日还需关注美国5月工业产出月率和6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值，若数据能好于预期将提振市场对美联储提前缩减QE的预期，利好美元，打压欧元。
13日K线显示金价开于1388，最高再度至1394受阻后回落，最低至1374受到支撑后反弹，终于1385收取小阳线。日线来看布林带维持收口整理趋势较。短期均线死叉走缓整理态势。金价在布林带中轨线上下震荡。MACD呈弱势金叉整理态势运行，RSI金叉收口合并整理态势明显，KDJ中间区域金叉缓慢上行；短线指标也呈多头整理态势也十分明显。目前而言正如黄金国度昨日所言金价上方虽多次站上1400，并上冲1420，但均为有效突破启稳该位置。显示1420压力强劲。昨日虽然美国经济数据利好但是美元指数并未有显著上涨，因此金价并未有较大跌幅，而下方1360一带也并未突破。近期金价区间震荡仍十分明显，且此格局短期内难有突破。后市将重点关注1420。如有突破金价仍有上行空间，否则将继续下行。今日操作区间1415-1370.其中1370,1382,1403均可做多。而1379，1389,1398上可空。上方1410可空
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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