QE减码 摩根士丹利下调今明两年金价
关键字：黄金价格
路透社报导，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）周一（3月10日）报告下调了今明两年的金价预估，称主要受到美联储缩减量化宽松，以及美国监管令大型投资银行纷纷撤出商品业务的影响。该行将2014年平均金价的预估下调11.6%至每盎司1,160美元，2015年均价预估也下调12.5%至1,138美元。摩根士丹利在报告当中表示，虽然中国大陆的实物黄金需求强劲，但另一个消费大国印度则是因为政策的限制令黄金进口减少；而去年黄金ETF（交易所交易基金）大减，相当程度抵消了消费需求的增加并造成金价大跌。报告也称，在金价前景低迷的影响下，今年金矿商的营运仍将面临相当的挑战。此前，瑞银集团（UBS AG）上调了金价的预估，称因为避险需求以及亚洲消费者的买盘增加。瑞银分析师Edel Tully与Joni Teves将2014全年平均金价的预估由1,200美元上调至1,300美元。花旗研调（Citi Research）也将2014年的金价预估上调了4%至每盎司1,303美元。
德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）上周五（3月7日）发表评论称，乌克兰事件一定程度上为黄金以及其他一些避险资产提供了支撑，比如瑞郎以及某种程度上的日圆。然而，根据历史来看，从上世纪七十年代开始，地缘政策能给黄金提供的积极效应就显著降低了，并且任何积极的趋势消散的都很快。该行预计乌克兰危机也不会有甚么不同，主要影响黄金走势的仍然是美国的真实经济数据，并且也将影响到美国长期实际利率和美元走势。德意志银行称，如果克里米亚事件对贵金属市场会有甚么持续性影响的话，那么会影响到的应该也是钯金。由于俄罗斯是世界最大的钯金生产商，一旦西方力量针对俄罗斯采取经济制裁，将破坏俄罗斯的出口。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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