金价上涨 今年第一季中国黄金消费将降
关键字：中国黄金
彭博社3月9日报导，中国黄金协会副会长张永涛表示，受到今年以来金价上涨约11%将令消费需求放缓的影响，第一季大陆黄金需求可能从去年同期的300公吨降至250公吨。根据中国黄金协会的数据，2013年，大陆黄金消费量首次突破1000吨，年增41.36%达到1176.40吨；全年国内黄金产量年增6%达428.163吨。张永涛也预估大陆全年的黄金消费与产量将与去年持平。大陆是全球最大的黄金消费国与生产国。世界黄金协会远东区董事总经理郑良豪上月表示，只要经济增长维持在7%以上，大陆今年黄金消费量应可维持在1000公吨以上，主要因为中产阶级逐渐累积财富的影响。根据彭博社的调查，经济学家平均预估大陆今年的经济成长率将为7.5%，与大陆官方宣布的目标一致，但此将创下自1990年以来的新低。张永涛认为，金价应该已经寻获底部，因为多数金矿商的生产成本约在每盎司1,100-1,200美元之间，一旦金价过度下跌，矿商将不得不进行减产。根据Thomson Reuters GFMS报告，2013年黄金生产的总维持成本（all-in sustaining costs, AISC）为每盎司1,200美元，较上一年度的1,228美元略微下降。
美国最大金矿商纽蒙特矿业公司（Newmont Mining Corporation）表示，2013年，该公司黄金产量年增2%至506.5万盎司，今年产量则预期将下滑至460-490万盎司。全球最大金矿商加拿大巴瑞克黄金公司（Barrick Gold Corporation）表示，2013年该公司黄金产量为716.6万盎司，总现金成本为每盎司915美元；预计2014年黄金产量将下滑至600-650万盎司，总现金成本则预期上扬至920-980美元区间。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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