黄金价格是否上涨 中印两国决定
关键字：黄金价格
印度整体需求依然强劲，根据WGC数据，2013年需求达974.8吨，较上年增长13%。
关键是，大部分需求是由国内规模不断增大的回收黄金所满足、而非进口，尽管委员会亦认为走私量也已大幅增加。
虽然印度可能会放松进口关税及所谓的80-20规定，但不太可能在第二季前这样做，所以在此以前进口需求应会持续受抑。
在5月底前举行的国会大选中，执政党有可能败给反对党印度人民党(Bharatiya Janata Party)，从而给黄金政策带来不确定性。
印度虽然有购金需求，但并不能确保2014年黄金进口会因而上扬，尤其是如果进口关税和再出口规定未像人们期望的那样很快放松。
黄金上市交易基金(ETF)似乎也有望重新受到追捧，虽然今年迄今净购买规模一直都只是小幅增长。
全球最大黄金ETF–SPDR Gold Trust GLD 的黄金净持仓量今年以来增长了0.4%，但不要忘了去年的持仓量净减少41%。
由于有迹象显示美国经济复苏，美国联邦储备理事会(美联储/FED)似乎致力于逐步削减购债计划，因此大量资金流入黄金ETF的趋势看来有些不稳。
随着量化宽松举措逐步撤出，美元走高，这也削弱了黄金的投资魅力。
虽然从中国、印度和ETF的黄金需求前景来看，2014年金价不太可能下跌，但也没有理由认为金价会强劲上扬。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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