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黄金现货反弹后 走势有所回落

关键字:黄金现货走势

【基本面】

美联储在上个月的议息会议上意外宣布削减购债规模。然而,随后美元并未迎来大幅上涨。不过,市场风险情绪与美联储的刺激政策之间的关系依旧是客观存在的。之所以美元在近来表现一般,很大一部分原因或许在于年末市场流动性的稀薄,而并非市场对美联储的政策无动于衷。随着投资者本周开始重返市场,流动性开始回归常态,在利率前景提升的影响下,美元走强的概率甚高。而如果市场避险情绪爆发,美元有望迎来大涨。

直到2013年中期,美元一直受困于美联储无休无止的宽松政策。这些政策在刺激市场风险偏好的同时,也降低了美元的预期回报率。不过,在去年6月份,市场关于美联储的宽松预期开始松动。而到9月时,市场已经意识到QE缩减无可避免。12月18日,美联储终于他除了缩减QE的第一步,将原先每月850亿美元的购债规模缩减至750亿美元。尽管每月750亿美元的购债规模分量仍是极重,但别忘记,市场更多关注的是对未来的预期。现在的问题是,美联储的缩减步伐将会如何?

 

【行情分析】

金价连续升5天,根据以往经验现实,连升4.5天,就会开始有所回落,一回落便是买盘机会,现在金价表现较强劲,现在吸纳,双低已经出现,相对承受的风险较低。加上中国大妈再次入金,农历新年来临,实金需求方面较多,有一定支持。

同时在1200有大量买盘出现,现在价位是1245,他们不会就此罢休,仍会继续持仓,建议逢低买入。

 

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