Capital Economics:2014年金价将回升
关键字：金价上涨
今年6月底，美联储首次暗示打算开始缩减QE，黄金一蹶不振，大跌24%，跌到了每盎司1300美元附近。上周美联储又明确了从明年1月起正式开始缩减QE，黄金又跌回了接近6月底的水平。今年黄金的年度表现是30多年来最差的。外界普遍预计明年金价会因为美联储的QE势头减弱而下跌，但一些分析师认为这正是黄金明年可能给人意外惊喜的原因。
资本经济(Capital Economics)的商品研究主管Julian Jessop认为：投资者的情绪已经非常负面，我们认为明年已经确定偏向上行风险。今年上半年，金价由每盎司1675美元跌至1200美元下方，下半年稍有回升至1400美元，目前在1198美元附近。
Jessop指出，首先，今年下半年黄金市场已经没有上半年跌得那么惨，这可能意味着已经度过最严重的下跌时期。其次，Capital Economics之前预计今年会托举金价的因素更有可能明年成为推升金价的动力。Jessop提到，如果明年欧元区局势又失去稳定，就可能推高金价，因为投资者又会寻找避险天堂。而且，市场担忧通缩的威胁也可能拉升金价。还有一个因素是美联储继续维持大部分QE的规模，向经济体注入大量流动性，这应该会支持金价。
Jessop称：明年美国的货币扩张还可能继续保持大部分势头。美国的低利率会持续更久。以日本央行为首的其他全球重要央行也会继续保持宽松，甚至加大宽松力度。
最后一个支持因素是新兴经济体的黄金需求复苏。
今年印度政府打压实物黄金进口，明年可能放宽一些禁令限制。此外，Jessop提到今年虚拟货币比特币价格飙涨引起中国等多国政府担忧，已采取相应措施，这可能使黄金对中国投资者的吸引力增加。实际上，今年贵金属表现不佳反而让它们看起来比股票等其他资产更有吸引力。我们重申，明年金价会至少回升至1400美元，可能更高。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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