葛洛斯：债市出现泡沫 Fed不需减码宽松
关键字：美联储量化宽松
有「债券天王」美誉的全球最大债券基金操盘手葛洛斯(Bill Gross)30日在联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)发表声明后接受CNBC专访时表示，联储局(FED)若想要让股市冷却下来，只要将融资保证金(margin requirements)提高就好，不需要减码量化宽松货币政策(QE)。
葛洛斯并指出，由于0.25%的联邦基金利率是遭到人为压抑，因此债市的确已出现泡沫。他说，投资人与想要储蓄的民众无法得到过去约2-2.5%左右的利息，进而创造了泡沫。不过，葛洛斯认为这个泡沫应该还不会破灭，因为FED下一任主席叶伦(Janet Yellen)很可能在未来2年、3年甚至4年内在「前瞻性指引」(forward guidance)中宣示要把利率维持在0.25%不变，而只要FED按兵不动，目前的债券价格和殖利率也很可能会延续下去。
那么，股市未来表现会如何？葛洛斯认为，这必须看经济成长的状况来决定。他认为，若FED的政策能够刺激经济出现2-3%的成长率，那么企业获利也会跟着扩张；若FED的策略无法奏效，那么股市恐怕会面临难题。
FOMC 30日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，并宣布维持每个月收购850亿美元资产的QE规模不变。不过，FOMC在会后声明中，剔除了前次有关「金融环境紧缩可能减缓经济复苏速度」的辞句，没有市场预期的那么鸽派。
U.S. Bank Wealth Management固定收益研究部主管Jennifer Vail 30日在接受彭博社专访时表示，其实FED原本就已快要按下减码QE的按钮，但大家却都低估了经济的成长力道以及FED的减码意愿。她认为，若等到明(2014)年1月再行减码，FED官员就能有几个月的经济数据可供研究，而该证券认为数据可能会呈现改善的局面。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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