高盛：金价短期看涨长期看跌
关键字：金价行情
9月18日因美联储维持购买资产计划每月850亿美元不变，故当天金价成为2009年6月以来最大单日升幅。但在周五圣路易斯联储主席布拉德(James Bullard)称美联储可能在下个月决定缩减债券购买规模后，金价随即插水回落至1300附近。
美联储这一决定带来的可能是美元走弱，继而影响贵金属交易。另外由于债务上限问题，市场担忧的是2011年底的信心丧失又将重演，它对货币的打击将搅浑金融市场，但对黄金价格将起到推动作用。
美联储在9月18日称需要更多经济恢复的证据来做出缩减债券购买规模的决定，金价在此决定后大幅上涨了约60美元左右。但分析师指出，这只是大规模的空头回补，而并非新的多头头寸上涨。
9月20日圣路易斯联储主席布拉德称美联储最终做出这样的决定是”只差一点”的，如果经济数据好转，美联储可能10月就开始缩减债券购买。
美国债务上限问题也将在10月展开讨论，如果和从其情况相同，那么在潜在危机爆发前的最后一刻可能达成协议，但这并不是可以确定的。大部分分析师则认为这次情况和2011年会有所不同，当时协议达成后，美元和股票市场下跌而金价则被推高。
在这些因素作用下，一些投行再次对黄金看涨，高盛(Goldman Sachs)在一份报告称金价将在短期上涨，但长期看跌。高盛认为金价在今年底至2014年将下跌。摩根大通(JP Morgan)则开始了黄金持仓。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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