伯南克言论或将进一步打压美元
上周美联储主席伯南克的言论大力打压了市场对於美联储将於短期内缩减QE规模的预期，这直接导致美元出现全线回调。上周美元对除日元外的主要货币均下跌，同时美股上涨，标普500指数刷新记录高点。本周，伯南克的鸽派言论还有可能继续打压美元，同时市场整体交投清淡也预示美元或将进一步下跌，而标普指数或将延续上涨。
本周外汇市场并没有十分重要的财经事件，这很可能导致汇市整体交投清淡，美元延续疲弱。而最大的变数或许在於本周末的6月美国耐用品订单数据。交易者将继续通过经济数据来衡量美国经济的发展。虽然一般而言这些数据并不会导致汇市出现太大波动，不过目前市场似乎极度依赖数据，数据的好坏有可能影响市场对於美联储政策的预期，从而左右汇市走势。目前市场一致预期6月耐用品订单将出现一定上涨，如果实际数据好於预期，或将提振美元。
美联储是近来汇市一系列波动的主要推手。之前伯南克有关QE缩减的言论将美元指数送上三年高点。而伯南克之後的鸽派言论再次引起汇市剧变，打压美元大幅下跌。总的来说，美元之後的走势将取决於美联储。按目前情况，美元进一步下跌的概率更大。
市场间有一句流传已久的格言很适合目前的情况∶“不要与美联储作对”。之前看起来似乎美联储将於短期内随时缩减QE，这一度导致风险资产出现回落。不过现在，伯南克已经澄清了美联储的进一步动向将凭借实际经济数据的好坏来决定。
在此情况下，除非美联储言论出现根本变化或者美国国内就业市场出现持续好转，不然我们将倾向於看空美元。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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