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初请失业数据低于预期 白银延续低位调整

现货白银6月13日亚盘时段震荡反弹,欧盘时段震荡回落,美盘时段延续跌势测试21.50附近支撑展开反弹;日内最高触及21.98,最低下探21.55,报收21.76,较上一交易日上涨0.05,涨幅0.23%。

基本面

美国6月8日当周初请失业金人数为33.4万人,预期为34.5万,前值没有修正,为34.6万人;上周美国初请失业金人数小幅下降,低于预期。

美国5月进口物价指数月率下滑0.6%,预期持平,4月月率下滑0.7%;5月进口物价指数年率下滑1.9%,4月为下降2.6%;美国5月进口物价指数月率连续3个月下滑。

美国4月商业销售月率减少0.1%,前值为减少1.2%;美国4月库存/销售比率触及2009年高点,为1.31,前值1.30。

德国5月批发物价指数月率下降0.4%,降幅大于上月的0.2%;德国5月批发物价指数年率下降0.1%,此前4月为下滑0.4%。

全球最大的黄金上市交易基金(ETF)–SPDR Gold Trust截止2013年6月14日持仓量1003.53吨,较上一交易日增持6.32吨;截止2013年6月13日shares Silver Trust(SLV)白银ETF持仓量为为9998.93吨,较上一交易日持平。

技术面

现货白银上一交易日收阳十字星,MACD红柱逐渐缩短,KDJ三线运行至超卖预期;4小时线MACD红柱逐步缩短,KDJ低位上拐;小时线MACD由绿转红,KDJ三线运行至高位,综合考虑,现货白银依然维持在下行通道当中,受压于下行趋势线,总体走势依然偏弱,预计震荡调整后延续跌势概率较大。

操作建议

隔夜美国初请失业数据低于预期,暗示美国就业市场复苏良好,压制贵金属;从盘面看,白银依然受压于下行趋势线,走势偏弱,操作上可保持偏空思路,前期高位空单及上一交易日22附近短线空单可暂持有,若上行破位22阻力考虑离场。

阻力:22.00 22.30 支撑:21.50 21.20


本文来源: 大田环球贵金属

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