王垣鑫：欧洲央行进行鹰派加息，金价低位急剧反弹
昨日早间亚盘金价于1945附近继续延续震荡回落走势，欧盘时段价格在1930附近有过短暂支撑迹象，不过晚间美盘开盘金价空头进一步向下发力最低一度下探至1924一线，不过随后价格开始大幅度反弹直接收回近两天的下跌幅度，目前整体重新回到1960下方进行交投。
世界黄金协会料金价维稳
在美联储昨日暂停加息但暗示货币紧缩政策尚未结束后，金价连续第五个交易日下跌，创下今年2月以来的最长跌幅。加息前景通常对黄金不利，并有可能跌至3个月来的最低收盘点位。MKS PAMP SA金属策略主管Nicky Shiels在一份报告中称，美联储为进一步加息注入了更多不确定性，这不利于黄金多头。在7月份的会议上，数据将变得更加敏感和重要。世界黄金协会美国地区董事总经理Joseph Cavatoni表示，由于美联储保持其鹰派立场，黄金仍然是一种战略资产。世界黄金协会称，投资者应继续将黄金视为一种重要的战略资产，尽管在美联储暂停其激进的货币政策立场，但仍维持其鹰派立场后，黄金近期将面临挑战。
欧央行进行鹰派加息
欧洲央行一如预期将利率提高了25个基点，至3.5%，为22年来最高。其工作人员还提高了对不包括能源和食品在内的通胀率的预测，特别是对今年和明年的预测，因过去读数的意外上行。对今年的通胀预测从4.6%提高到5.1%。“我们的基线预测是在7月最后一次加息25个基点，终端利率为3.75%，”德国中央合作银行在一份由首席经济学家Mark Wall领导的研究报告中写道，“风险显然仍然是上行的。”“在最新的欧洲央行新闻发布会上有一些鹰派元素，特别是上调了2025年的通胀预测。也有一些鸽派的因素，拉加德明确表示将在7月加息，但刻意避免对9月的预期进行指导。”
行情方面，昨日金价短暂跌破震荡区间底部支撑后迅速反弹，日线录得带有长下影线的K线形态，价格在跌破1940一线位置后大幅反弹，暗示近段时间的震荡区间目前仍未被跌破，因此短时间内还可继续保持震荡看盘思路，继续去留意1940-1985区间的震荡及后市突破方向。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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