熊傲君：六月份仍有机会加息，黄金本周延续下行
在上个月美联储利率决议释放鸽派并暗示即将停止加息的情况下，本来金价的上行势头是相当不错的，再加上后续公布的通胀数据也有了明显的回落，帮助黄金一度创出了历史新高。然而，到了五月中下旬开始，美联储官员集堆的讲话却表达出了极为鹰派的态度，这使得目前的金价又重新跌穿了2000大关，在六月份利率决议之前，恐怕仍将维持震荡的节奏。
六月加息概率提升至50%
导致近期黄金价格不断震荡下行的主要因素，就是此前认为几乎没有加息可能的情况下，现阶段已经重新提升至50%，这意味着六月份的美联储利率决议还是有不少机会继续加息25个基点的，一旦成为事实毫无疑问会对金价形成极大的施压力度。不过，在此之前还有不少关键的经济数据需要结合，比如今晚的通胀数据以及下周的非农数据都是相当重要的存在。
美国债务上限接近达成协议
近段时间还有一个影响金融市场局势的因素，那就是美国的债务上限问题，不过随着近期的协商情况良好而且接近达成协议的情况下，市场的避险情绪也基本消散殆尽，所以未能对金价提供太大的支撑力度。美国总统拜登和共和党籍众议长麦卡锡周四似乎接近就削减开支和提高政府31.4万亿美元的举债上限达成一项协议，但目前留给他们避免违约风险的时间已所剩无几。
在市场风向不断变化的情况下，黄金价格即使突破了历史新高也未能进一步打开上方的空间，所以接下来的方向判断还得结合美国经济数据的表现以及美联储货币政策的调整，也由此可见六月份对黄金市场来说非常重要，很可能直接奠定了下半年金价走势的整体节奏。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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