美債收益率攜美元下跌，日元創近三個月最大漲幅
周三(11月17日)美元指數尾盤跌0.11%，至95.79，此前曾觸及自2020年7月中旬以來最高的96.26，美元兌G-10貨幣漲跌互見，因多頭平倉。美元兌日元觸及四年半高位，兌歐元測試1.12美元水準，受助于強勁的美國零售銷售數據，以及美聯儲政策制定者的鷹派言論，與歐洲央行行長的鴿派言論形成鮮明對比。
美聯儲主席易人可能會刺激通脹預期升高
大田環球分析師表示，美聯儲領導層的調整可能會促使交易員提高對美國長期通脹的預期。如果市場認為對新美聯儲主席的提名是一個政治化的決定，那麽盈虧平衡通脹率長期內必然會上升。市場預計長期通脹率可能小幅升高，美元也可能受到影響，不過認為這是暫時性的。重要的是，如果提名的不是現任美聯儲主席鮑威爾，美國政府將如何處理局面，政府能否說服市場相信繼任者布雷納德會采取類似策略。
預計美元兌日元年底前將升至117.00
三菱日聯經濟學家稱，維持對美元兌日元USD/JPY的看漲傾向，並上調預測區間至111.00—117.00，以反映美聯儲短期利率可能進一步走高的前景，從而進一步推動美日上行。區間頂部117.00與長期趨勢阻力位相重合，這一水平不太容易達到。我們預計明年原油價格將下跌（料市場將在2022年第二季度前出現供應過剩）以及供應限制問題將逐漸得到緩解，這一可能性意味著使日元疲軟的一些因素在未來一兩個月後將不會持續。與此同時，鑒于美國利率市場可能會進一步上調，料美日仍有進一步走高的空間。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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