美元連跌二日，瑞郎兌歐元由逾六年高位回落
周四(11月18日)美元指數尾盤跌0.26%，至95.54；美債收益率漲跌互現；早些時候，美國公布的數據顯示，上周首次申領失業金人數超預期；近期美國數據顯示，10月通脹率創1990年以來最高，而零售銷售數據超過預估，令市場預期美聯儲會較預期更快升息，推動美元走強。
盡管通脹率預計將創紀錄 歐洲央行料仍堅持寬松立場
彙豐研究顯示，即便通脹率創下紀錄，也不會阻止歐洲央行繼續維持超寬松立場。高級經濟學家Fabio Balboni等人預計歐元區通脹率本月觸及4.5%的曆史高位，與此同時央行正準備為刺激計劃制定規劃。如果11月通脹率高企，歐洲央行行長拉加德可能會不好堅持通脹是暫時性的這一觀點，歐洲央行料不會將當前通脹激增放在心上，並將在12月宣布進一步支持2022年的量化寬松。
預計英國脫歐將使英國央行成為利率的第一個推動者
高盛全球固定收益投資組合經理Hugh Briscoe表示，英國脫歐引發的勞動力短缺可能意味著英國央行會在其他主要銀行之前加息。正在做空英國政府債券，預計英國央行將在12月加息約15個基點，使基準利率上升至0.25%，然後到2022年6月再加息兩次。英鎊也有貶值的風險。英國和歐盟之間日益緊張的貿易關系使前景變得複雜。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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