美元走強澳元大跌，關注美聯儲利率決議
周二(11月2日)美元指數上漲0.26%，至94.11；市場已經完全消化了美聯儲將發布縮減聲明的預期，並將尋找任何關于何時開始加息的線索。澳洲聯儲的態度較投資者預期的更加鴿派，導致澳元創下自9月29日以來的最大單日跌幅，這是本周第一個召開會議的主要央行。
經濟學家Anna Wong：美聯儲在縮債方面未透露的內容將是關鍵
本次美聯儲會議幾乎肯定會宣布開始縮債，包括縮債的速度、時機和組成等關鍵細節。在我們看來，美聯儲很可能在11月中旬或12月中旬之間啓動縮債，但鑒于物價和工資方面的數據高企，我們傾向于認為其將于11月中旬開始縮債。新聞發布會上沒有提及的內容將是關鍵。委員會料不會引入任何定義達到充分就業的門檻。委員會也不會有關于對于開始縮債後何時加息的措辭。相反，其將保留在明年年中左右縮債完成後立即加息的選項。預計加息將在2022年第三季度開始。
美國銀行：美聯儲縮債預期將逐步提升，這將利多美元
美聯儲主席鮑威爾可能無法讓市場相信，預期中的縮債聲明並不意味著即將加息。盡管鮑威爾做出了最大努力，但市場可能不會將未來加息的時機和縮債當做兩個獨立的決定，特別是如果鮑威爾“明顯提高”對于通脹風險的評估，且討論可能加快縮債的速度，從而提前加息。我們預計，美聯儲的預期將逐步提升，這將利多美元。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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