十年期美债冲顶，黄金跌破关口
关键词：十年美债冲顶
3月18日，现货黄金出现巨大下挫，刷新本周新地点，美元指数走强，美债收益率的飙升都打压了黄金对市场的吸引力，但随着美股大跌，也促进了一下避险资产的买入行为，抵消了美债收益率上涨带来的压力，金价有所支撑。
10年期美债收益率突破1.7％后，期货成交量暴增，引发新一轮抛售。在亚洲时段，美国国债已经面临一定卖压，伦敦一开盘资金流加速，纽约早盘收益率攀升至新高。美联储会议之前积累的多头头寸被解除，进一步加剧了抛售。持续整个交易时段的大宗交易令长期国债承压，在晚些时候出现的现货国债买盘推动下， 7年期和30年期国债收益率差收窄至日内最低点。中期国债跌幅最大，5年期收益率一度攀升10个基点，至略低于0.90％的水平，7年期利率上升11.2个基点，逼近2020年2月以来高点1.39％。
市场的通货膨胀预期指标位于多年高点附近，交易员下调对美联储最早明年年末开始收紧货币政策的预期。纽市尾盘，美国国债收益率回吐部分涨幅，但仍保持较高水平。
美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，他对近期长期收益率的上涨并不担心，他的关注重点仍将放在金融状况是否仍然宽松上。由于预期刺激措施和疫苗接种将推动更显著的经济复苏和通胀回升，今年以来市场利率持续飙升。
分析师表示，随着经济复苏取得进展，鲍威尔给10年期和30年期收益率进一步上行开了绿灯。在这些假设受到挑战之前，潜在的通货膨胀预期将保持高位，并且仍将是美国国债看跌趋势的基石。就目前而言反向押注没有好处。
随着美债收益率大涨，周四纳指重挫3%，美债收益率攀升似乎帮助了新一轮朝着周期性股票的板块轮动。分析师a表示，在出现“市场噪音与某些避险资金流入”的背景下，科技股遭到抛售，黄金价格走高。但美债收益率的上升可能使金价的上涨难以为继。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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