非农就业数据向好，黄金反弹有限
关键词：非农就业数据向好
3月5日，非农就业数据公布后，现货黄金出现较大幅度下跌，由于美国就业数据好于市场预期，提振了美元和美债收益率，让金价受到较大承压，同时黄金周线有可能出现连续下跌。
数据显示，美国2月就业岗位增幅超过预期；美国2月非农就业人口增加37.9万，远超预期的增加20万，一月为增加4.9万，这令人对大规模财政刺激和疫苗接种推动经济快速反弹燃起希望。强劲的经济数据将指标10年期美债收益率推至2020年2月以来最高，美元也跳涨至92关口之上。Ava Trade首席市场分析师Naeem Aslam表示，美国非农就业人数正迅速增长，经济正在复苏，失业率也有所下降，很明显，交易员做空金价是因为预计美元将继续上涨，因为经济正在变强。
金价或将跌向1660美元/盎司的区域。黄金正在寻找底部，但只有当美联储采取令人信服的行动阻止国债收益率上升时，黄金才有可能触底。美元走强，以及现货交易商卖出黄金筹集美元以获取更高的收益率，都将推动资金从黄金这个资产中流出。
今年对黄金市场来说是不同寻常的，过去20年来，每年1月和2月总是黄金表现最好的时段，但今年1月和2月金价却大幅下跌。过去一年里，黄金对利率的敏感度增加了四倍，利率表现对黄金的影响大幅增大。不过该机构表示，只要利率维持在2%下方，今年金价仍然可能有较好表现。
分析师指出，金价接下去预计将稳定在1707至1653美元/盎司间。金价反弹至55个月均线1707美元/盎司附近受阻，不排除进一步下跌到1653美元的可能。如果下行趋势结束，那么金价要回升到5月高点的50%回撤水平也就是1760美元/盎司附近，甚至需要回到1794美元/盎司才能彻底表明下行趋势的终结，之后就是200日移动均线1861美元/盎司水平。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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