金价维持低位，欧美疫情带来更多不确定性
关键词：欧美疫情带来更多不确定性
11月20日，现货黄金维持整体低位，目前疫苗信息给市场带来了乐观情绪，但是欧美疫情的恶化也在不断增加投资者的有两部，加上投资者关注财政刺激计划的进展，让金价难以出现较为明显的波动。
共和党和民主党人之间的谈判将可能是漫长的过程的第一步。民主党人目前提议的刺激方案规模为2.2万亿美元，而麦康奈尔则表示，他不会支持超过5000亿美元的方案。
此前由于美国国会缺乏行动，已使数百万美国人处于财务不稳定的状态。一些经济学家指出，随着新冠病毒感染人数的飙升，冬季期间失业人数可能会增加，政府提供支持的必要性正进一步升高。
从时间来看，两党两项关键救助计划即将到期，届时会引发7月底以来失业救济最大幅度的缩减。7月底时，根据新冠病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案（CARES）给予失业救济领取者的每周600美元额外补助金到期。
美国财长要撤走美联储抗疫紧急工具的消息对金价不利，因为市场投资者仍然期待更多的美联储宽松措施。不过该消息对金价影响相对有限，因为市场认为美联储仍然可能采取更多的措施。
《华尔街日报》援引行业分析人士警告称，姆努钦的决定意味着市场将失去一个能激发投资者乐观情绪的关键后盾。在美国新冠病例不断增加，经济复苏放缓的现状下，这一决定会加剧市场的不安。
高盛在其最新报告中表示，黄金仍有强有力的看涨理由，2021年金价预期维持在2300美元。黄金的结构性牛市没有结束，随着通胀预期上升、美元贬值以及新兴市场国家对黄金的零售需求继续复苏，明年金价将再次启动牛市行情。
不过该行指出，近期内金价可能难以出现上涨或下跌的有意义的动能。根据经济学家的预期，未来五年美国短期实际利率均值将为-2.1%。五年期国债收益率目前为-1.2%，暗示有实际的下跌潜能。相比其股票投资组合的亏损，更担忧美元实际购买力的投资者在今年购买了大部分的黄金。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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